前段时间，因武汉市公安机关对“新冠疫情曝光人”李文亮医生作出警示和训诫，一时间使得“谣言”二字备受关注。诚然据李文亮事件已经过去一月有余，这篇文章未免有炒冷饭蹭热度之嫌，但究竟何为谣言？公安机关在日常治安管理中又应该如何甄别和管理“散布谣言行为”？作为法律工作者理应进行深度思考。

     传播学的一般理论认为，“谣言”系有意凭空捏造的信息或消息。而在我国法律体系中，谣言一般是指虚假消息。但法律中却并未明确谣言的界定标准，因此在实践中公安机关往往对于谣言的认定容易存在差别，由此也容易引发社会舆论。

     而笔者认为，谣言应当是指不真实的、有着很大负面影响的信息。也即意味着一个信息如果被认定为谣言，应当在客观上同时具备不真实和造成很大负面影响两个要件。根据上述两个要件，即可从一般情况下可以很容易地判断一个消息是否属于谣言，例如：“老母猪下崽后开口说人话，称天亮前吃9个鸡蛋可以防治肺炎疫情”、“双黄连可以预防新冠状病毒”等。从真实性而言，基于日常生活经验、现有科学知识即可判定为假；而从影响性而言，引发社会恐慌、扰乱社会秩序等显然属于很大负面影响。

     但通过李文亮事件，笔者同样发现有很多类似的消息是带有预见性的，涉及公共领域的，同时无法根据在其流传之时的科学技术、生活常识或者其他标准来明确辨别其真假的，只能到未来某一时间点才能对其作出具体的性质判断（以下简称预见性言论）。至于此类消息是否应当将其视为谣言，实务中的做法饱受争议。

     根据媒体报道，李文亮医生于2019年12月30日下午5时许在武汉大学04级班级微信群里发布消息说“华南海鲜市场确诊了7例SARS”，提醒大家注意防范。然而李医生不仅没有因敢于曝光疫情受到褒奖，反而和其他7名同仁一起受到了来自公安机关的训诫。2020年1月1日，武汉市公安局官方微博@平安武汉发帖称，8名散布谣言者被依法处理。当然，事情的后续进展很快就对武汉市公安机关的此番行为给了重重一耳光，截至今日，新型冠状病毒SARS-CoV-2已然成为了全世界重点关注的对象。现在看来，李医生的行为和武汉市卫健委、公安机关的前期做法形成了鲜明的对比，一方在积极向外界发声，提醒大家做好防护；而另一方则在拼命打压言论，掩盖事实真相。

     时至今日，李文亮医生早已因感染新冠肺炎不幸离世，而“李文亮事件”却值得我们深思。那些类似于李医生所爆出疫情消息的“预见性言论”到底属于谣言吗？公安机关又是否能将其扩散此类预测或判断的行为以散布谣言进行处理？

     经过深度思考，笔者认为在处理“预见性言论”时不应一棍子打死，而应该从消息的内容科学性、社会影响性以及传播者的主观意图进行综合考量。

     从消息内容科学性看来，任何个人或者团体的认识都是有限的，这是认识能力和实践能力以及所处的特定历史时期所决定的，面对全新事物，没有人可以开启上帝视角对事实作出准确描述。在所有人对新冠病毒都一无所知的情况下，李医生基于自身所具备的专业知识迅速作出判断和预测，并于第一时间向外对此信息进行了传递。纵然此消息的内容在现在看来是不够准确，存在瑕疵的，但从事物的发展规律来看是合理的，且至少是存在一定事实依据的。如果当一名医生都不能对一个新型疾病的特征作出准确判断之时，一名尚不具备基础医学知识的民警又怎可简单的将基于此疾病所作出的预测定性为虚假的，甚至认定其为谣言？再者，这个时候公安机关如果未经充分调查就盲目的将信息定性为谣言，将传播者定性为造谣者并做出处罚，那后经证实散布的内容都是真实的，公安机关的行为属不属于枉法？面对突然爆出的疫情消息，公安机关不应成习惯性地将爆出疫情的言论当作谣言处理，而更应该拿出公安机关的警觉，利用人民赋予的公权力尽快查实消息源头，为人民的生命健康负责。面对“预见性言论”，公安机关如果只会机械地套用法律，那么法律就失去了它应有的灵魂。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

     从消息的社会影响性来看，按照法律规定和实务经验，谣言必定是会造成扰乱社会秩序、引发民众恐慌等负面社会影响的消息。李医生制造并散播“武汉出现SARS”言论的行为，从表面看来虽然的确在一定程度上引起了民众的恐慌情绪，但从事实看来，已经经历过一次“SARS”的中国人民显然具备了相应的警觉和应对心理素质，相比起这个讯息所造成的不良影响，带来更多的则是积极作用：越来越多的人在看到消息后自觉带起了口罩，做到了勤洗手勤消毒，少出门少聚集，如此这般显然对于疫情的防控起到了一定程度的积极影响。涉及公共领域的“预见性言论”普遍会带来较大的